Ukraine Update: What A Difference A Few Weeks Made!
Still In November
It’s now the end of November and the progress of the Russian army has most definitely accelerated as the Ukrainian army finds it harder and harder to maintain its positions across the whole front. The Russian military is continuously becoming stronger and the Ukrainians weaker, with the resulting imbalance now being displayed more and more at the front.
The Overcoming Of The Ukrainian “Maginot Line”
I keep the image below from the last update, from Weeb Union, of the Ukrainian defensive works (the position of the Russians is of course out of date by a few weeks). With the soon to be fall of Hulyaipole and the taking of the T0401 highway in the south, all of the defensive lines between the Russians and Zaporizhzhia city will have been breached. The southern facing defensive line can then be flanked from the north.
With the taking of Novopavlivka, the defensive lines to the west of Pokrovsk can be flanked from the west through Mezhova and then Slov’yanka. With the taking of Pokrovsk-Mirnograd, the forces advancing north to flank the Kramatorsk-Slovyansk defensive line from the west can be rapidly built up and supplied.
The Russians are about to enter open operational space in many areas, with the geography one of relatively flat lands interspersed with mainly small towns. This is the probable disaster facing the Ukrainians at the start of 2026.
And this isn’t even factoring in the fall of Yampol and the soon to be fall of Siversk and Lyman that will provide a strong logistics hub for the Russian forces to drive directly on Slovyansk.
The benefit of taking Kupyansk is being delayed by the desperate holding attempts of the Ukrainians on the cut-off east bank of the Oskol. Once that is subdued, Kupyansk can fully act as a forward logistics hub for drives west, south west and west deep into the Kharkov oblast. The Russians are in the process of creating another Ukrainian pocket on the east bank of the Oskol as they advance on Borova.
All the while, Russian drones and missiles will continue to destroy the logistics and power supply capabilities that support the Ukrainian military. All the while, Ukrainian casualties will continue at 40,000-50,000 a month with many more Ukrainian soldiers deciding that life is more important than fighting for the Ukrainian and Western oligarchs and going AWOL.
The Ukrainians have thrown everything that they have at stopping the breaches of the Maginot Line from happening and they have failed / are failing; with their casualties only limited by their reduced numbers.
The West continues to flail while Russia changes the facts on the ground
The desperation of the US to rescue something form the impending disaster is shown by the “28 points” plan being put forward by them, one which will be roundly rejected by a Russia enjoying increasing success on the battlefield.
At the same time, the utterly delusional Europeans still talk about what is acceptable to them, rather than what will be forced upon them by increasing Russian victories.
The Western authorities control the Ukrainian anti-corruption agency and therefore will have known about the venous level of the skimming of Western financial and military support by the Zelensky regime for a very long time; some of which we can safely assume finds its way back into Western corrupt hands. Therefore the public airing of these issues can be seen as a US attempt to pressure Zelensky into accepting the new US negotiating position; something that seems not to be fully working. The taking out of Zelensky’s top backer and adviser, Yermak, by the anti-corruption agency can be seen as a further attempt to soften Zelensky up for major peace concessions. We cannot discount though the counter pressure from Ukrainian nationalist forces which have threatened to kill Zelensky if he gives up any Ukrainian territory.
Russia can be expected to entertain any proposals, at the least performatively, as a way of playing for time as they gain what they want on the battlefield.
Individual Front Updates
I have reversed my usual order of fronts as so much is happening on the southern front, where the Ukrainian defences seem to be in a state of collapse.
The Southern Front
Take Novopavlovka to protect northern flank and gain access to less fortified areas to the west. TAKEN.
Take Mezhova to cut off forces to the west of Pokrovsk. ONLY ABOUT 7 KM NORTH OF NOVOPAVLIVKA.
Take Slov’yanka to cut off forces to the north west of Pokrovsk. FUTURE OBJECTIVE
Take Pokrovs’ke to cut the T0401 from the north. T0401 CUT, RUSSIAN FORCES HAVE TAKEN VIDRADNE (aka Otradne) ONLY ABOUT 5 KM TO POKROVSK’KE.
Take Hulyaipole to cut the T0401 from the south. RUSSIAN FORCES STORMING HULYAIPOLE.
Take Novomykolaivka to cut the T0408 from the north. RUSSIAN FORCES WITHIN 15 KM.
Take Orikhiv to cut the T0408 from the south. MALA TOMACHKA TAKEN, SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH NOVODANYLIVKA.
Advance to the south and west of Zaporizhzhia to cut the T0803 and N15 from the west. VERY SLOW GOING IN STEPNOHIRS’K and PRYMORSK
Where we were less than a month ago:
And where we are now:
Novopavlivka has been taken, opening up the road to Mezhova (about 7km away), the taking of which will cut off the Ukrainian forces to the west of Pokrovsk. The north-south T0401 between Pokrovs’ke (of which Russian forces are within 5km) and Huliaipole (which Russian forces are now storming) has been cut across a front of many km.
The rate of progress on this front in only a few weeks is a very significant acceleration and produces the possibility that Mezhova, Pokrovs’ke and Hulyaipole could all be taken in the balance of this year. An utter disaster for the Ukrainians and three new logistics hubs to be added to Pokrovsk/Mirnohrad for the Russians. There would also be no prepared defensive lines between the Russians and Zaporizhzhia city as they flank the defensive emplacements to the south. An advance from Mezhova to Slov’yanka in the new year would cut the road between Pavlohrad and the Ukrainian forces north east of Pokrovsk.
There is even somewhat better progress being made through the defensive belts around Orikhiv, and once Hulyaipole is taken Orikhiv can be taken from the north west via Omelnyk (20 km from Hulyaipole).
Pokrovsk
Attack on the northeastern flank, taking Razine and advancing to outskirts of Myrnohrad: DONE
Cut the northern supply roads between Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka: DONE
Advance to Hryshyne (aka Grishino) on the high ground north west of Pokrovsk, cut the last supply road of the E50: THE E50 CUT WITHIN POKROVSK, RUSSIAN FORCES STORMING HRYSHYNE.
Take Pokrovsk: DONE
Take Mirnograd: IN PROGRESS
The Ukrainians have thrown wave after wave of troops against the Russian forces surrounding Mirnograd to no avail. The Russians have taken a few weeks to allow enough of the Ukrainian forces to try to escape through the small kneck left open to them, with extremely high casualties. Now the Russians have closed the neck and are carefully subduing Mirnograd.
Once Mirnograd is subdued, the Russians will be able to utilize the road and rail connections into Pokrovsk to rapidly build up their offensive forces in the area, while the Ukrainians no longer have such a hub. A huge advantage for the Russians to allow them to advance north and north west deep into the rear of the Kramatosk-Slovyansk conurbation and toward Slov’yanka. The remainder of Donetsk oblast will be there for the taking.
Kostyantynivka / Kramatorsk / Slovyansk
Advance northwards to the west of Kostyantynivka to Osykove to cut the H20 (envelopment from south west) AWAITING FALL OF MIRNOGRAD.
Advance west from the north of Chasiv Yar to Maiske & Markove, then flank the deep emplacements by advancing to Osykove and Druzhkivka to cut the H20 (envelopment from north east) MAISKE TAKEN
Close the pocket between Toretsk and Yablunivka DONE
Take the area between Dachne (northeast of Toretsk) and Predtechyne (east of Kostyantynivka) as that will enclose a heavily fortified area and threaten Kostyantynivka from the east and south east. It would also bring the T0516, that supplies the Ukrainian troops between Kostyantynivka and Kleban-Byk, under Russian fire control. DONE,
Move north from above pocket toward the southern outskirts of Kostyantynivka and storm the town. VERY SLOW PROGRESS, RUSSIAN FORCES VERY CLOSE TO TAKING THE JUNCTION OF THE H20 AND T0516 IN SOUTHERN KOSTYANTYNIVKA.
Advance to the west of Kramatorsk to sever the supply lines between it and everything to the west (T0514 and T0510), which will greatly aid a northwards advance from the Pokrovsk area. STALLED, SEE ABOVE.
Take Izyum to then completely cut off the Kramatorsk/Slovyansk agglomeration from the north. FUTURE OBJECTIVE.
Progress has remained painfully slow as extra Ukrainian forces were moved to defend Kostyantynivka and to defeat the push north from Pokrovsk. Once Mirnograd is subdued, the forces north of Pokrovsk can be quickly built up and the northern drive restarted.
Lyman-Siversk
Take Lozove to cut off the Ukrainian troops east of the Oskol between Lozove and Bohuslavka (about a 17km wide pocket), with only the bridge at Horokhovatka left to supply them; a bridge that will be destroyed any time it becomes functional. WITHIN 5 KM OF ROAD TO LOZOVE
Take Lyman and/or Yampol to cut off all of the supply routes to Siversk YAMPOL TAKEN, RUSSIAN TROOPS STORMING LYMAN.
Take Siversk to collapse the front that is centred on it. RUSSIAN TROOPS STORMING SIVERSK.
Progress on this front has continued to be slow, but has sped up with Russian troops in the process of storming both Siversk and Lyman, after taking Yampol. The taking of these will both significantly improve Russian logistics and remove a significant amount of defensive lines in from of Slovyansk, resulting in a possible significant speed up in Russian progress.
Kupyansk
Take area delineated by Volchansk, Prymorske, and Kupyansk. VOLCHANSK BRIDGEHEAD VERY SLOWLY EXPANDED, MYLOVE & KAMYANKA BRIDGEHEADS CONNECTED AND EXPANDED.
Take Kupyansk. KUPYANSK TAKEN.
Ukrainian positions and troops on eastern side of Oskil River defeated. IN PROGRESS BUT VERY SLOW.
Drive south from Kruhlyakivka. MOVE TO CUT OFF UKRAINIAN FORCES SOUTH OF KRUHLYAKIVKA TO BREAK THE DEADLOCK.
The most progress has been in the joining of the Mylove and Kamyanka bridgeheads, but overall very slow progress as the Ukrainians fiercely resist around Volchansk and Kupyansk. The advance toward Borova threatens to create another Ukrainian pocket on the eastern side of the Oskol.
Sumy
Take Sumy: NO FURTHER PROGRESS